Thursday, February 28, 2013

SF and Wardak Province News Update

Not a lot of news, unsurprisingly, has come out in the last day or so in reference to President Karzai ordering out all Special Forces from Wardak province. He ordered the SF teams removal based on allegations that the SF teams (or Afghan military and police units they were working with) are abusing the local population. Most certainly Karzai is attributing acts the Taliban or other nefarious groups are doing to the SF teams and their Afghan partners.

Karzai's true reasons for demanding the removal of the SF teams most likely involve his political posturing for 2014 - his probable intent is to get political groups in Wardak (to include moderate insurgents) aligned with him in a bid to further consolidate his political power. By diminishing the ability of coalition (and Afghan security forces) to weed out and neutralize segments of the insurgency - Karzai can build support with these moderate forces in a future power-sharing arrangement. A likely side effect of this latest attack on NATO by Karzai is to set conditions for the relationship with the new ISAF commander.

ISAF has been very quiet so far on this affair - no doubt recoiling from another unwarranted, unanticipated, and unfathomable attack from Karzai. Naturally ISAF will jump through hoops to keep Karzai happy with meetings (see "General Dunford and President Karzai meet to discuss security in Wardak", DVIDs, February 27, 2013); it will establish a joint commission with the Afghans to review the allegations and conduct an investigation (see "Joint Commission Reviews Wardak Province Allegations", American Forces Press Conference, February 26, 2013); and it will reject the accusations of abuse as false (see a video where "NATO Rejects Misconduct Claims", DVIDS, February 25, 2013).

While ISAF's news releases provide sparse statements with little info others are speculating on the Wardak situation. One report provides some background information on the happenings in the province - see "Did U.S. Special Forces Commit Atrocities in a Key Afghan Province?", Time, February 28, 2013.

There is certainly a lot of uncertainty as to how this latest drama with Karzai will resolve. A lot is at stake here - ISAF's relationship with Karzai, the outcome of the COIN fight in Wardak, and post-2014 involvement of SOF in Afghanistan.

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